"We expect Nintendo to sustain this competitive advantage by introducing a high definition version of the Wii, perhaps as early as the end of 2010, in order to convert its large installed base into true 'next generation' households," Pachter wrote in a report quoted by IndustryGamers. The report, titled "Money for Nothing, How Ancillary Revenues Can Extend The Console Cycle," also hypothesized that the PS3 is likely to capture significant market share - or second place - due to Sony's "victory" in the high definition DVD format war. Concurrently, the Xbox 360 will "fade to third place" as it suffers from a significant "lack" of popularity in Japan.
"We expect the Wii to capture 49% share of the U.S. and European market by the end of 2009, followed by the Xbox 360 at 29% and the PS3 at 22%. By the end of 2011, we see Nintendo 'winning' the console war by maintaining its share, with 48% of this market. We expect Sony to pull even with Microsoft, each with 26% market share. These estimates do not include console sales in Japan, which we expect to be dominated by Nintendo with over 65% market share through 2011," stated Pachter.
In addition, Pachter surmised that videogame storage would increase exponentially to 1 terabyte or more - with digitally distributed software accounting for only 50 percent of all software sales by 2019.
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